Every time I hear of poll results on the upcoming elections, I'm reminded of the presidential election of 1948.
In that year, Republican Thomas Dewey was running against incumbent President Harry Truman. It was nearly unanimous among all polls that Dewey would win by a wide margin. Pundits were quick to jump on the bandwagon.
On election day, the polls and pundits were proven wrong. Truman won reelection by over two million popular votes and over 100 electoral votes.
Why were the polls and pundits so wrong? One theory faults the incorrect polls to the fact that they were taken by phone; in 1948, many voters did not have phones and so were missed. If correct, I guess someone forgot to tell those voters that Dewey was supposed to win!
As one writer said at the time:"-- the American people couldn't be ticketed (labeled) by polls, knew its own mind, and picked---Truman--". R. Strout as quoted in "Truman"/David McCullough).
The lesson for today is obvious. Although polls of today are arguably more "scientific", they can still be misleading. Don't let polls and pundits influence your own judgement.
Voters decide elections, not the polls or the pundits!
In that year, Republican Thomas Dewey was running against incumbent President Harry Truman. It was nearly unanimous among all polls that Dewey would win by a wide margin. Pundits were quick to jump on the bandwagon.
On election day, the polls and pundits were proven wrong. Truman won reelection by over two million popular votes and over 100 electoral votes.
Why were the polls and pundits so wrong? One theory faults the incorrect polls to the fact that they were taken by phone; in 1948, many voters did not have phones and so were missed. If correct, I guess someone forgot to tell those voters that Dewey was supposed to win!
As one writer said at the time:"-- the American people couldn't be ticketed (labeled) by polls, knew its own mind, and picked---Truman--". R. Strout as quoted in "Truman"/David McCullough).
The lesson for today is obvious. Although polls of today are arguably more "scientific", they can still be misleading. Don't let polls and pundits influence your own judgement.
Voters decide elections, not the polls or the pundits!
electoral college decides over voters so the populus may influence but our votes may not count.
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