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Friday, May 18, 2012

The Road to November

The presidential campaign has now evolved into a predictable pattern; that is, the main issues are in the forefront but are frequently sidelined. Topics which most voters would consider as not their top priority, such as gay marriage and alleged character issues of the candidates for instance, often gain the spotlight. But as of now, the most important issues are the economy and the size of government.

When Bill Clinton first ran for president in 1992, his political mantra was "It's the economy, stupid." That sentiment is also applicable today. Our economic growth is anemic and employment levels unsatisfactory. We are fast approaching a $16 trillion debt, a debt we cannot support for long unless we change economic course.

The approach we take to solve these problems will be ours to choose in November. The Democrats call for more government stimulus and spending, an idea of uncertain provenance, which will result in more debt. The Republican approach is to rely on the free enterprise system to grow the economy, which historically, America has been at the forefront.

Current polls of voter sentiment are inconclusive and often contradictory. During the next six months there are some significant events on the horizon that will impact election results. Domestically, they include economic factors such as growth and unemployment, the Supreme Court's pending decisions on health care, gay marriage and a state's right to enforce immigration laws and actions pending in Congress to raise the debt limit and potential bills related to taxes and spending. In foreign affairs, there is the possible implosion of the EU and the euro and the potential threat to peace posed by Iran.

All of the above factors plus any unforeseen events will have an effect on the election. What that will be depends on the candidates' reactions to actual events and crises and the subsequent public evaluation of which candidate can best lead the country.

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